The tin market's gains are likely to be capped at the level before Alphamin's production cuts. [Institutional Commentary]

Over the past two weeks, the tin market experienced significant fluctuations. The impact of reciprocal tariff systemic events and the news of Alphamin's resumption of production in the DRC directly pushed LME tin to a low of $28,900, while SHFE tin followed the decline to 236,000 yuan. However, due to tight domestic tin resources and the repeated tariff disputes in the US, tin prices rebounded quickly alongside the sentiment of precious metals and copper prices. Currently, SHFE tin is fluctuating above 260,000 yuan, essentially returning to the level before Alphamin's production halt.

From an upstream perspective, tin prices have withstood the impacts of the M23 armed unrest in the DRC, the delayed resumption of production in Wa State due to the Myanmar earthquake, and the suspension of production at Malaysian refineries. Although the rise in tin prices was rapid, under the tight ore supply environment, the impact of systemic risks on tin prices remains significant, and the positive effects of ore-related factors are limited, indicating that the focus of tin market pricing has shifted to demand. Currently, Alphamin has begun resuming production, and Wa State will gradually recover, suggesting that attention should be paid to actual supply changes.

Downstream, the new US president is considering tariffs on the semiconductor industry, and reciprocal tariffs have significantly suppressed the market value of leading enterprises in the 3C electronics sector, increasing demand uncertainty. It is now believed that demand plays a larger role in tin pricing. Last week, the extremely low tin prices attracted relatively limited buying in the domestic market. SMM's social inventory of tin decreased by only 342 mt, remaining at a high level of 11,600 mt. LME tin inventory increased slightly by 150 mt to 3,140 mt last week, and the 0-3 month contango widened again to $231.

Looking ahead, the global tin market is fully loaded with supply themes. Under the broader trend, LME tin has not been spared. A stronger rally in LME tin, approaching record levels, must be supported by demand resonance, but current consumption is moderate. As a minor commodity, tin is noticeably sensitive. Last week's extremely low prices attracted limited buying, and the destocking of social inventory was below expectations. It is inclined that SHFE tin is in a rebound trend, with resistance above 265,000-270,000 yuan. It is recommended to short on rallies and wait for supply changes.